Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Can Underdogs Roar Again?
By Jason McIntyre
Picking five NFL games against the spread each week is terribly difficult. We’re using lines from the Hilton SuperContest, and remember, 57 percent is considered good. CineSport’s Noah Coslov went 2-3 last week to fall to 18-27 on the year. Jason had his first 5-0 thanks to late rallies by Jacksonville and Minnesota, and he’s 27-18, which is 60 percent, so prepare for a correction.
I don’t mind admitting that I’m one of those insecure freaks when it comes to mild success – I’ve actually been hotter with my picks in the videos here than in the real Hilton contest (24-21). Why? Because I’m the king of over-thinking and over-analyzing, and when it comes to things of massive importance (like NFL gambling), I’m a perfectionist.
So after we record these videos, I pour over stats and trends from Oddsshark and take 23 more looks at where the money is headed and I get skittish and (usually) do something stupid. For instance, last week I took the 49ers, breaking a cardinal sin: Avoid double-digit favorites.
This week, I did it again! But the logic was slightly better, and when it misses and I’m forlorn and despondent Monday, you’ll know why.
If you want to see how we got here, feel free to watch some of the prior videos. Last week’s was prescient: Of the four big road underdogs, three hit (natch, the Jets missed) and one was an outright winner (St. Louis).
Week 1: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Tampa Bay and … Who?
Week 2: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Another Sunday for Underdogs?
Week 3: The Underdogs Can’t Keep Up Their NFL Hot Streak, Right?
Week 4: NFL Underdogs Are Roaring, and Four Play at Home Sunday
Week 5: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Big Underdogs to Watch Sunday
Week 6: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Seven Home Underdogs Ready to Roar?
Week 7: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Can Home Underdogs Reverse the Trend?
Week 8: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: The Packers, Eagles & Ravens Are Underdogs!
Week 9: 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread: Anyone Have an Appetite for Big Road Underdogs?