Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Can Home Underdogs Reverse the Trend?

Picking five NFL games against the spread each week is terribly difficult. We’re using lines from the Hilton SuperContest, and remember, 57 percent is considered good. I’m 16-14 on the season after a 2-3 week; CineSport’s Noah Coslov continued his climb with a 3-2 week to improve his record to 12-18 for the season.

I was more heated than Doug Baldwin after last Sunday’s clunker. Sometimes, you can be on the right side – for instance, the lines on the Bills, Vikings and Giants all went “my way.” By that, I mean the big, sharp money had moved the line to make it favorable for my position. Of course, the Bills were carved up by Tom Brady at home, the Vikings offense was non-existent at home, and New York’s offensive line forgot to show up in a blanking at the hands of the Eagles.

Such is life.

Last week there were six home underdogs, and they went a putrid 1-5. The week before? 1-3. So a combined 2-8 the last two weeks. That can’t possibly continue, can it? This week there are three.

Here’s a great trend from Oddsshark: The Colts, who I can never seem to figure out, are 3-point favorites at home against a team they’ve owned at home lately, the Bengals. So why am I not taking them?

One last note: Be leery of the hook. There are four 6.5-point lines; three 5.5-point lines.

Week 1: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Tampa Bay and … Who?
Week 2: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Another Sunday for Underdogs?
Week 3: The Underdogs Can’t Keep Up Their NFL Hot Streak, Right?
Week 4: NFL Underdogs Are Roaring, and Four Play at Home Sunday
Week 5: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Big Underdogs to Watch Sunday
Week 6: Five NFL Picks Against the Spread: Seven Home Underdogs Ready to Roar?